Join our live blog of the NSW Election as voters in Australia’s biggest state choose whether to re-elect the ruling conservative Coalition.
Welcome to The Typewriter’s live blog of the 2015 NSW Election, where voters in Australia’s biggest state are contemplating whether to reward the ruling conservative Liberal/National coalition with a second term, or to elect the rookie Luke Foley as Premier and return government to Labor just four years after their electoral humiliation.
We’ll be keeping you updated throughout the evening both here on the blog and across our social media channels on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter. Our coverage begins at 5pm AEDST, and will continue until the result is known.
12.28
But that concludes our coverage of the 2015 NSW State Election, as Mike Baird’s Liberal/National Coalition avoids the same fate which befell their Queensland counterparts just eight weeks ago.
Yesterday it was state politics. Today the focus switches to international sport, and the final of the 2015 ICC Cricket World Cup at the MCG between the co-hosts Australia and New Zealand. You can follow our live coverage of the final here.
I’ve been Shaan Sewak; on behalf of the entire Typewriter team, thanks for your company!
12.12
Statewide (swing):
Liberal: -3%
National: -2.6%
Labor: +8.6%
Greens: no change
No Land Tax: +1.9%
Independents: +1.5%
Christian Democrats: +0.1%
The swing to Labor was half what they needed to claim victory, but it was about expected based on polling data leading up to the election. The swing against the Coalition was smaller than expected, and the Greens’ vote went absolutely nowhere despite the fact they picked up 3 seats (including two, remarkably, in northern NSW).
It is important, also, to note that Labor yesterday recorded their second-worst vote in history. The worst, of course, was 2011. Of all the parties, Labor has the least reason to be celebrating today; there are major concerns faced by the party on the back of these results, not least being the fact voters are now abandoning them in regional NSW as well as inner-city suburbs.
12.07
Seats won:
Coalition: 54
[Liberal 38, National 16]
Labor: 33
Greens: 4
Independents: 2
Total = 93
Coalition supporters will be pleased at their better-than-expected showing, with many predictions putting their seat count at around 50 or slightly lower. Labor picked up 13 seats across its Central Coast & Hunter heartland, but other than a couple of seats in outer Sydney failed to make much of an impact in seats they would otherwise have expected to win.
More remarkable is the fact that the Greens unexpectedly won 2 seats in rural, conservative NSW from the Nationals, with the inner-city progressive party capitalising on the anti-CSG vote to attain swings of up to 30% in Ballina and Lismore and steal those seats from the heart of the Nationals’ heartland. Labor’s concern would be how voters in those seats went straight to the Greens rather than Labor.
12.01
Statewide (Primary):
Liberal: 35.7%
Labor: 34.2%
Greens: 10.3%
National: 10%
Independents: 4.7%
Christian Democrats: 3.3%
No Land Tax: 2%
Animal Justice: 0.1%
Cyclists: 0.1%
Outdoor Recreation: 0.1%
Unity: 0.1%
In the absence of a Palmer United or Katter Australia or similar party of the protest vote, it seems that many voters looking for a minor party split their votes between the Christian Democrats and the No Land Tax parties. It’s interesting to note that the No Land Tax party ran candidates in almost every seat, and was able to grab around 2% of the vote in every single seat with slight fluctuations down to 1.5% in some Sydney seats, and up to 5% in rural NSW and even 7% in seats like Fairfield.
Otherwise the results were largely expected; on a 2PP basis I’d expect the final results to mirror the Fairfax/Ipsos poll a week ago which indicated a split of 54-46 to the Coalition.
11.53
Wyong:
Held by LIB on margin of 4.6%
Counted: 63%
Swing: 14% to ALP
Result: ALP easy win
11.52
Wollongong:
Held by ALP on margin of 9.3%
Counted: 63%
Swing: 6.5% to ALP
Result: ALP easy retain
11.51
Wollondilly:
Held by LIB on margin of 21.6%
Counted: 65%
Swing: 4.5% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
11.50
Willoughby:
Held by LIB on margin of 30.4%
Counted: 57%
Swing: 7.7% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
11.50
Wallsend:
Held by ALP on margin of 6.3%
Counted: 68%
Swing: 14.9% to ALP
Result: ALP easy retain
11.49
Wakehurst:
Held by LIB on margin of 30.5%
Counted: 67%
Swing: 3.6% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
11.48
Wagga Wagga:
Held by LIB on margin of 27.8%
Counted: 52%
Swing: 14.3% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
11.47
Vaucluse:
Held by LIB on margin of 31.4%
Counted: 49%
Swing: 10% to GRN
Result: LIB easy retain
11.45
Upper Hunter:
Held by NAT on margin of 23%
Counted: 53%
Swing: 19.5% to ALP
Result: NAT retain
11.44
Tweed:
Held by NAT on margin of 21.7%
Counted: 55%
Swing: 19.9% to ALP
Result: NAT retain
Another seat where CSG exploration was a major issue, but the Nationals hang on despite a 20% swing to Labor.
11.43
The Entrance:
Held by LIB on margin of 11.8%
Counted: 62%
Swing: 12.7% to ALP
Result: ALP easy win
11.42
Terrigal:
Held by LIB on margin of 23.6%
Counted: 53%
Swing: 15.2% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
11.41
Tamworth:
Held by NAT on margin of 6.8%
Counted: 53%
Swing: 4.4% to NAT
Result: NAT easy retain
11.40
Sydney:
Held by IND on margin of 0.3%
Counted: 47%
Swing: 10.4% to IND
Result: IND easy retain
11.38
Swansea:
Held by LIB on margin of 0.3%
Counted: 64%
Swing: 12.9% to ALP
Result: ALP easy win
The second-most marginal seat in the state was tipped to go back to Labor on the back of Liberal corruption allegations, CSG opposition, and the fact the seat was in Labor’s heartland. No surprise that it has now returned to being a safe Labor seat.
11.36
Summer Hill:
Held by ALP on margin of 12.7%
Counted: 56%
Swing: 2.5% to GRN
Result: ALP easy retain
11.36
Strathfield:
Held by LIB on margin of 6.4%
Counted: 61%
Swing: 7.7% to ALP
Result: ALP easy win
11.35
South Coast:
Held by LIB on margin of 20.1%
Counted: 52%
Swing: 12.7% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
11.34
Shellharbour:
Held by ALP on margin of 7.8%
Counted: 58%
Swing: 10.1% to ALP
Result: ALP easy retain
11.33
Seven Hills:
Held by LIB on margin of 8.8%
Counted: 66%
Swing: 0.6% to LIB
Result: LIB easy retain
A brand-new seat created from parts of the abolished Toongabbie, and somehow the Liberals have again managed a swing to them despite being in Labor’s western Sydney heartland.
01.48
Ryde:
Held by LIB on margin of 25.2%
Counted: 66%
Swing: 13.8% to ALP
Result: LIB easy retain
01.47
Rockdale:
Held by LIB on margin of 3.5%
Counted: 65%
Swing: 8.4% to ALP
Result: ALP easy win
To be frank, this seat should never have been lost by Labor in the first place, especially considering that neighbouring Kogarah stayed with Labor amidst the carnage of 2011. The Liberals will be disappointed to lose, but given this is Labor heartland it was always unlikely to stay away from them for too long.
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